US National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas update on the next storm system:
Bottom Line
Very windy conditions are expected on Thursday. We are monitoring the potential for strong storms and winter precipitation Thursday and Thursday night, but as of now, the threat for both of these is low. Keep up with the forecast this week!
Overview
This abbreviated update is an early heads up regarding a dynamically challenging storm system expected on Thursday and Thursday night. There are several uncertainties regarding this system, and the forecast will continue to be refined this week as Thursday approaches.
Here are the highlights:
Wind: Very strong winds are expected behind the cold front as it moves through on Thursday. Many outdoor items will likely need to be secured. Impacts to aviation travel are also possible/likely.
Winter Weather: With uncertainty in the strength of the incoming system, its track and speed, our confidence in winter weather is low at this time. The weather models have consistently kept surface and near-surface temperatures too warm (even behind the cold front), and thus our official forecast maintains a cold rain on Thursday and Thursday night. We continue to keep a close eye on this potential. Have you already seen accumulation maps on social media?...see the FAQ section below.
Strong Storms: Right now this potential looks low, but if the system slows down, the chance for a few strong storms could increase, in particular along and east of I-35/35E.
FAQ
What about all the social media posts showing snow and blizzard conditions for parts of the area? Remember to consider the source of the social media post and be mindful of their expertise. As eloquently stated in our discussion this morning:
“In this type of scenario, you will undoubtedly come across model snowfall plots plastered on social media. It’s important to remember that model algorithms for determining precip type are highly unreliable for a myriad of reasons, and many times are just flat out bad. Model snowfall should never be taken at face
value without performing a thorough top-down analysis of the thermal/moisture profiles. For instance, models would suggest
multi-inch snow totals with this system even though they simultaneously forecast surface temperatures in the 40s. We`ll of course continue monitoring this potential over the coming days and make any necessary adjustments as new data becomes available.
The bottom line here is that some relatively abrupt and potentially significant changes could be made to the forecast without much notice with this system, so folks should keep an eye on the forecast through the end of the week. “ #dfwwx ... See MoreSee Less
